Methodology

A method you can audit.

Our process is designed to be explained, questioned and checked. Here is exactly how a selection moves from idea to settled result.

Market assessment

We scan liquid markets and identify where prices move slowly relative to new information — lineups, schedule load, surface, weather.

Independent estimates from team and player models, adjusted with documented qualitative inputs. We record the estimate before comparing it to price.

Offered odds are compared against fair odds. A selection is only published when the estimated edge clears a minimum threshold.

Stakes are expressed in units and scaled conservatively with edge and confidence — never chasing losses, never increasing to recover.

Every selection is timestamped and settled publicly: won, lost or void. Nothing is deleted or retro-edited.

Limitations

Models are estimates. They can be miscalibrated, and markets are often efficient.
A positive expected value is a long-run average, not a forecast of any single result.
Sample sizes under several hundred bets say little about true skill.
Closing-line comparison is a better short-term signal than win rate.

EV calculator

Demonstration data

Offered odds 2.20

Your probability estimate 50%

Implied

45.5%

Fair odds

2.00

EV / unit

+10.0%

EV = probability × odds − 1 = 0.50 × 2.20 − 1 = 0.100. The price exceeds your fair estimate — but only if your estimate is right.

Five simulated runs of 100 identical bets

Same edge, very different paths. That is variance.

Bet 0Expected after 100: 10.0uBet 100